Tootfinder

Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation
Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Karin Klieber, Christophe Barrette, Maximilian Goebel
https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.05209 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.05209
arXiv:2404.05209v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized nonnegative ridge regression problem that optimizes the price index's subcomponent weights such that the aggregate is maximally predictive of future headline inflation. Ordering subcomponents according to their rank in each period switches the algorithm to be learning supervised trimmed inflation - or, put differently, the maximally forward-looking summary statistic of the realized price changes distribution. In an extensive out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the US and the euro area, we find substantial improvements for signaling medium-term inflation developments in both the pre- and post-Covid years. Those coming from the supervised trimmed version are particularly striking, and are attributable to a highly asymmetric trimming which contrasts with conventional indicators. We also find that this metric was indicating first upward pressures on inflation as early as mid-2020 and quickly captured the turning point in 2022. We also consider extensions, like assembling inflation from geographical regions, trimmed temporal aggregation, and building core measures specialized for either upside or downside inflation risks.

Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation
Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Karin Klieber, Christophe Barrette, Maximilian Goebel
https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.05209 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.05209
arXiv:2404.05209v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized nonnegative ridge regression problem that optimizes the price index's subcomponent weights such that the aggregate is maximally predictive of future headline inflation. Ordering subcomponents according to their rank in each period switches the algorithm to be learning supervised trimmed inflation - or, put differently, the maximally forward-looking summary statistic of the realized price changes distribution. In an extensive out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the US and the euro area, we find substantial improvements for signaling medium-term inflation developments in both the pre- and post-Covid years. Those coming from the supervised trimmed version are particularly striking, and are attributable to a highly asymmetric trimming which contrasts with conventional indicators. We also find that this metric was indicating first upward pressures on inflation as early as mid-2020 and quickly captured the turning point in 2022. We also consider extensions, like assembling inflation from geographical regions, trimmed temporal aggregation, and building core measures specialized for either upside or downside inflation risks.

About the vibrator that allegedly had malware on it 2wks ago... I found a seller and bought one. Say hi!
The people on the thread who pointed out that there wasn't any evidence tying the vibrator to the Redditor's malware download were - of course - downvoted.
And ... *so far* there are no signs of malware. It doesn't register as a HID or present any storage (therefore it has no autorun.inf). I'll be doing some more setup so I can plug it in and monitor it for an …

Looks like #GNOME reports the sizes of #windows incorrectly when monitors have different scale factors. I can recreate this #bug (mobile phone video as I haven’t been able to find a way to screen capture all mon…

Why do windows get resized on their own when using monitors with different DPI's?
I am using one 1080p and one 4K with 100% and 200% DPI without scale-monitor-framebuffer (because I suspect that enabling it causes a weird problem) on Wayland Gnome 43.3. I have seen on Gnome’s GitLab that it is a known problem that system menu becomes very large on the 100% DPI monitor. And this is kind of understandable, because if you use the same menu, then the menu looked normal on 200% DPI would look very large on the 100% DPI monitor. But another problem, I cannot understand why it…

Chemical abundances and deviations from the solar S/O ratio in the gas-phase ISM of galaxies based on infrared emission lines
Borja P\'erez-D\'iaz, Enrique P\'erez-Montero, Juan A. Fern\'andez-Ontiveros, Jos\'e M. V\'ilchez, Antonio Hern\'an-Caballero, Ricardo Amor\'in
https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.02903 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.02903
arXiv:2403.02903v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The infrared (IR) range is extremely useful in the context of chemical abundance studies of the gas-phase interstellar medium (ISM) due to the large variety of ionic species traced in this regime, the negligible effects from dust attenuation or temperature stratification, and the amount of data that has been and will be released in the coming years. Taking advantage of available IR emission lines, we analysed the chemical content of the gas-phase ISM in a sample of 131 Star-Forming Galaxies (SFGs) and 73 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs). Particularly, we derived the chemical content via their total oxygen abundance in combination with nitrogen and sulfur abundances, and with the ionisation parameter. We used a new version of the code HII-CHI-Mistry-IR v3.1 which allows us to estimate log(N/O), 12 log(O/H), log(U), and, for the first time, 12 log(S/H) from IR emission lines, which can be applied to both SFGs and AGNs. We tested that the estimations from this new version, that only considers sulfur lines for the derivation of sulfur abundances, are compatible with previous studies. While most of the SFGs and AGNs show solar log(N/O) abundances, we found a large spread in the log(S/O) relative abundances. Specifically, we found extremely low log(S/O) values (1/10th solar) in some SFGs and AGNs with solar-like oxygen abundances. This result warns against the use of optical and IR sulfur emission lines to estimate oxygen abundances when no prior estimation of log(S/O) is provided.

Solutions to ${\rm SU}(n 1)$ Toda system with cone singularities via toric curves on compact Riemann surfaces
Jingyu Mu, Yiqian Shi, Bin Xu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.03161

Solutions to ${\rm SU}(n+1)$ Toda system with cone singularities via toric curves on compact Riemann surfaces
On a compact Riemann surface (X) with finite punctures (P_1, \ldots, P_k), we define toric curves as multi-valued, totally unramified holomorphic maps to (\mathbb{P}^n) with monodromy in a maximal torus of ({\rm PSU}(n+1)). \textit{Toric solutions} for the ({\rm SU}(n+1)) system on $X\setminus\{P_1,\ldots, P_k\}$ are recognized by their associated {\it toric} curves in (\mathbb{P}^n). We introduce a character n-ensemble as an (n)-tuple of meromorphic one-forms with simple poles and purely imagi…

I found two adorable stray kittens on a busy urban street. At first, there was only one, who I monitored all afternoon, and then another appeared.
With the help of a friendly passerby, I caught the two and am keeping them in a spare bedroom until tomorrow afternoon, when I will take them to a no-kill rescue shelter.
If anyone in the DC area would like these two sweethearts, let me know. I don't think the mother is around because the white one is skin and bones.

About the vibrator that allegedly had malware on it 2wks ago... I found a seller and bought one. Say hi!
The people on the thread who pointed out that there wasn't any evidence tying the vibrator to the Redditor's malware download were - of course - downvoted.
And ... *so far* there are no signs of malware. It doesn't register as a HID or present any storage (therefore it has no autorun.inf). I'll be doing some more setup so I can plug it in and monitor it for an …

Microlensing optical depth and event rate toward the Large Magellanic Cloud based on 20 years of OGLE observations
P. Mroz, A. Udalski, M. K. Szymanski, M. Kapusta, I. Soszynski, L. Wyrzykowski, P. Pietrukowicz, S. Kozlowski, R. Poleski, J. Skowron, D. Skowron, K. Ulaczyk, M. Gromadzki, K. Rybicki, P. Iwanek, M. Wrona, M. Ratajczak
https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.02398 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.02398
arXiv:2403.02398v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Measurements of the microlensing optical depth and event rate toward the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) can be used to probe the distribution and mass function of compact objects in the direction toward that galaxy - in the Milky Way disk, Milky Way dark matter halo, and the LMC itself. The previous measurements, based on small statistical samples of events, found that the optical depth is an order of magnitude smaller than that expected from the entire dark matter halo in the form of compact objects. However, these previous studies were not sensitive to long-duration events with Einstein timescales longer than 2.5-3 years, which are expected from massive ($10-100\,M_{\odot}$) and intermediate-mass ($10^2-10^5\,M_{\odot}$) black holes. Such events would have been missed by the previous studies and would not have been taken into account in calculations of the optical depth. Here, we present the analysis of nearly 20-year-long photometric monitoring of 78.7 million stars in the LMC by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) from 2001 through 2020. We describe the observing setup, the construction of the 20-year OGLE dataset, the methods used for searching for microlensing events in the light curve data, and the calculation of the event detection efficiency. In total, we find 16 microlensing events (thirteen using an automated pipeline and three with manual searches), all of which have timescales shorter than 1 yr. We use a sample of thirteen events to measure the microlensing optical depth toward the LMC $\tau=(0.121 \pm 0.037)\times 10^{-7}$ and the event rate $\Gamma=(0.74 \pm 0.25)\times 10^{-7}\,\mathrm{yr}^{-1}\,\mathrm{star}^{-1}$. These numbers are consistent with lensing by stars in the Milky Way disk and the LMC itself, and demonstrate that massive and intermediate-mass black holes cannot comprise a significant fraction of dark matter.

I found two adorable stray kittens on a busy urban street. At first, there was only one, who I monitored all afternoon, and then another appeared.
With the help of a friendly passerby, I caught the two and am keeping them in a spare bedroom until tomorrow afternoon, when I will take them to a no-kill rescue shelter.
If anyone in the DC area would like these two sweethearts, let me know. I don't think the mother is around because the white one is skin and bones.